It has finally come to this. It is Rivalry Week for College Football which means it is is the last week of the regular season. Which also means it is the last game of the season for Razorback football because....well we are 2-9 and you need at least 6 wins to go to a bowl game. Our rival that we'll play is the Mizzou Tigers. They are 5-6. This means that if we win, they will not be bowl eligible. This would probably be a sweet note to end this horrible season that we have had. But Mizzou is on a 5 game losing streak which means they are not feeling so hot right now. Which could give them a lot of motivation to win their last game of the regular season. It isn't like it will be hard to beat us. Right now the FPI has Mizzou beating us by 14 from 82.5% of the 10,000 simulations of this game. It isn't a big surprise since we score an average of 22.1 points a game and give up 38 points a game. Mizzou scores 25.5 points a game while they only give up 19.9 points a game. The match-up overall looks like both teams are not that proficient at offense, but Arkansas is really terrible at defense. This could be enough help for Mizzou to get a good lead. But according to the FPI, Arkansas did win 17.5% of the 10,000 simulations so it isn't impossible for Arkansas to win. Since it is an Arkansas game, I am picking Arkansas to win because I am a fan. But my professional opinion strongly suggests to pick Mizzou according to these odds. However, it is not impossible to have at least a sweet ending for the Razorbacks football season.
On another note, I have been thinking lately about my Super Bowl predictions since it is later in the season and there is a good amount of data to use to make predictions. So far from seeing some of the numbers, it is most likely that New England will go to the Super Bowl and win it, again. Since 2001, They have gone to 9 of the last 18 Super Bowls and won 6 of them. So by history alone, they have the best chance to do it this yet. Also since 2001, they have on average allowed only 18.66 points and scored 27.89 points. The years that they weren't in the Super Bowl, they allowed 19.52 points and scored 27.56 points. When they have been to the Super Bowl, they allowed 17.79 points and scored 28.22 points. However, when they lose a Super Bowl, they were allowed 19 points a game and scored 32.5 points a game. But when they win, they allowed 17.18 points a game and score just 26.08 points a game. This trend shows that the Patriots go and win the Super Bowl when they allow less points and score less points than they usually do. This season so far, they have only allowed 10.6 points and scored 27.3 points. The trend that they are going on shows that they can go to the Super Bowl and win this year since they are averaging less points for defense on offense than they usually do. Another indicator to see if they'll go and win or lose is by Tom Brady's play. He averages a passer rating of 97.2 so far in his career. When he gets to the Super Bowl, his rating is 99.77 which is higher than normal. But for him to win, he averages 95.38 for each season he wins it all. Whenever he loses, he averages 108.53 for each of those seasons. Right now his passer rating for the season is 88.5. With the trend that is going on, the Patriots have a better chance at winning whenever Tom Brady is less involved and doesn't perform as well. This in correlation goes with their defense being more involved whenever they have won the Super Bowl with their offense also scoring less. That is just my deep analysis into how New England is most likely going to the Super Bowl and win it this season.
Of course I am not a Patriots fan. But I always need to rely on the numbers because they are what measures success and trends. A recent trend that is hot now is Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They only allow 18.1 points and score 35.1 points a game! The NFL record for most points scored in a season was done by the Denver Broncos in 2013 with an average of 37.9 points a game with 606 points total. For the Ravens to tie that record, they need to score 44 points in their remaining games. In their past 3 games, they have been averaging 45 points a game. If they continue with this trend of 45 points a game, they'll end the season with 611 total points with 38.2 points a game which beats the record. Lamar Jackson is projected to end the season with 3,530 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns with 1274 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. With possibly having a total of 4,804 yards with 44 total touchdowns, he needs to win the MVP. Because of Lamar Jackson, I want the Ravens to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. But of course like I said earlier, it is likely for the Patriots as well. But I think that the AFC championship will be against these two and the Ravens will win and go to the Super Bowl. The NFC will be the Seahawks. It could be the 49ers but the Seahawks have more experience in the postseason. My prediction for the Super Bowl will be the Ravens vs. Seahawks which would be a good Super Bowl or a sweet ending to the NFL season. Just like I hope Episode 9: The Rise of Skywalker will bring a sweet ending to the Skywalker Saga.
Now before anymore college football games or NFL games go on, it is time to make my predictions. Last week I went 18-4 for college football and 9-4 for the NFL. That brings my total for college football as 37-7 which is 84% accurate and my total for NFL is 17-9 which is 65.4% accurate. Looks like I'm doing okay so far. Let's try this week with these predictions.
College Football:
Mizzou vs. Arkansas. Winner: Arkansas
Iowa vs. Nebraska. Winner: Iowa
Cincy vs. Memphis. Winner: Memphis
Boise St. vs. Colorado St. Winner: Boise St
Appalachian St. vs Troy. Winner: Appalachian St.
Ohio St. vs Michigan. Winner: Ohio St.
Clemson vs. South Carolina. Winner: Clemson
Georgia vs. Georgia Tech. Winner: Georgia
Alabama vs. Auburn. Winner: Alabama
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota. Winner: Minnesota
Baylor vs. Kansas. Winner: Baylor
Rutgers vs. Penn St. Winner: Penn St.
Oregon St. vs. Oregon. Winner: Oregon
Notre Dame vs. Stanford. Winner: Notre Dame.
Texas A&M vs. LSU. Winner: LSU
Iowa St. vs Kansas St. Winner: KSU
Colorado vs. Utah. Winner: Utah
FSU vs. Florida. Winner: Florida
Oklahoma vs OSU. Winner: Oklahoma
NFL:
Raiders vs. Chiefs. Winner: Chiefs
Jets vs. Bengals. Winner: Jets
Titans vs. Colts. Winner: Colts
Eagles vs. Dolphins. Winner: Eagles
Packers vs. Giants. Winner: Packers
Browns vs. Steelers. Winner: Steelers
Redskins vs. Panthers. Winner: Redskins
Buccaneers vs. Jaguars. Winner: Jaguars
49ers vs. Ravens. Winner: Ravens
Rams vs Cardinals. Winner: Rams
Chargers vs. Broncos. Winner: Chargers
Patriots vs. Texans. Winner: Patriots
Vikings vs. Seahawks. Winner: Seahawks
I have been usually only been writing about Razorback football and posting my predictions for the recent match-ups for college football and NFL. But I am a nerd and so I want to write a post about Star Wars this time.
I have been thinking a lot about the Star Wars films and especially the recent ones that have been released by Disney. I admit that I think that they are all really good and are really beneficial to the Star Wars brand. I say this because they really do pick up a lot on the overall idea about how the Force influences the story like in the Original Trilogy. I think that so many people love the Original Trilogy because of the ideas that they taught about that the Force is this mystical power that binds the universe and our destinies. Below are some videos from the Original Trilogy of how the Force has been explained to us.
The way that the Force is explained really inspires the masses about connecting with our surroundings and believing that anything can be possible. The way that the Force is displayed in the Original Trilogy really makes one believe about the importance of having faith. Faith involves having this immense trust and believe in something that can't be seen all of the time. A passage from a book called the Book of Mormon says that "faith is not to have a perfect knowledge of things; therefore if ye have faith ye hope for things which are not seen, which are true." As you could see from the video with Yoda teaching Luke about the Force, Luke was having trouble getting his X-wing out of the swamp. He was having conflict about trusting and having this faith in the Force to help him lift his ship up. Because of his conflict, he was not able to do it. However, we see Yoda who has all faith in the Force and is able to lift the whole ship out of the swamp and land it. This is probably the best example of what the Force can do if you believe in it and connect with it. Yoda, even with his small size, is able to do such great Force feats because of his connection to the Force. Another great example is in the below video when Luke has to take the shot to destroy the Death Star in Episode IV: A New Hope.
As you watch the video, it shows the Luke was going to use his targeting computer to shoot his shot. But then he hears the voice of Obi-Wan that tells him to use the Force. He disables his targeting computer and then trusts in the Force to help him. In doing so, he hits right on target and saves the Rebellion.
The Original Trilogy did a great job in showcasing the mystery and awesomeness of the Force in guiding us. What really prompted me to write this blog was also thinking about how the Force is tarnished from the Prequel Trilogy. I do like to watch the Prequel Trilogy and keep it as part of the canon, but the Force just isn't how it was represented like in the Original Trilogy. The biggest example is from this video from Episode I: The Phantom Menace.
They emphasized that the Force is just from these cells called midichlorians that live in everyone. With this, they took a less fantasy way of explaining the Force and just used a scientific way instead. This just simply takes the mystery and awesomeness of the Force away doing this. It even creates embarrassing parodies about the Force.
After this, I really commend the Sequel Trilogy by not emphasizing anything about the Force that was taught by the Prequel Trilogy. The best example about what the Sequel Trilogy teaches about the Force is in this clip from Episode VIII: The Last Jedi.
I really love this part of the movie because it shows the connections that the Force has in all parts of life. It shows the connections into everything and that it encumbers all light and darkness. This also emphasizes that the Force could come from anyone and not just the Jedi. Luke implores that the Jedi don't own the Force and all hope is not lost without the Jedi. This is probably the biggest takeaway about the Force from the Original Trilogy and the Sequel Trilogy. There is always hope when the Force is with you.
I always have thoughts about Star Wars or other nerdy things when I have the chance. This blog will not always just talk about math into football. I will post another one like this one soon!
It is finally the Battle for the Golden Boot with the biggest point spread between Arkansas and LSU ever. The FPI shows that LSU is the favorite to win by 42 points!! That means that in 10,000 simulations, LSU beat us by an average of 42 points. If Arkansas were to beat LSU, it would perhaps be the biggest upset that Arkansas has ever pulled off. I still do remember when Arkansas was in a similar situation in 2007 when we were playing then #1 LSU in Baton Rouge. We beat them in overtime that time, but of course that was a way better team back then when the coach was Houston Nutt and Darren Mcfadden was making history. But since we are using an interim head coach Barry Lunney Jr. and he is from Fayetteville and seems to be passionate about coaching with the Hogs, anything could happen. But of course it is most unlikely to happen. As the coaching search goes on, I am feeling good that our AD Hunter Yurachek could find the right coach for the program. He found Eric Musselman for the basketball program and they are so far undefeated and looking good. Just think if he found another Eric Musselman but for the football program!
At this time as a Hog fan, all we need to do is just hope for a miracle. Hope that we find the right coach to turn the program around and hope that Arkansas could at least give a scare to LSU. But anything is possible.
Last week with my football predictions, I went 19-3 in college football and just 8-5 for the NFL. Overall was 86.4% accurate for college football and 61.5% accurate for NFL. Not to bad for my first time since football analysts on average get 60% accuracy. Let's try again for this week and see if I can repeat this success!
College Football:
Arkansas vs. LSU. Winner: Arkansas
Penn St vs Ohio St. Winner: Ohio St
W Carolina vs. Alabama. Winner: Alabama
Minnesota vs Northwestern. Winner: Minnesota
Samford vs Auburn: Winner: Auburn
Illinois vs Iowa Winner: Iowa
Okla St vs WVU: Winner: Okla St
Kansas vs. Iowa St: Winner: Iowa St.
Boston College vs Notre Dame: Winner: Notre Dame
Texas St vs Appalachian St: Winner: Appalachian St.
Texas A&M vs Georgia: Winner: Georgia
Michigan vs Indiana: Winner: Indiana
Texas vs Baylor Winner: Baylor
UCLA vs USC. Winner: USC
SMU vs Navy. Winner: SMU
Purdue vs Wisconsin. Winner: Wisconsin
Memphis vs USF. Winner: Memphis
Temple vs Cincinnati Winner: Cincinnati
Oregon vs Arizona St. Winner: Oregon
TCU vs Oklahoma Winner: Oklahoma
Utah vs Arizona Winner: Utah
Boise St. vs Utah St. Winner: Boise St.
NFL Match-ups:
Cowboys vs Patriots. Winner: Patriots
Buccaneers vs Falcons. Winner: Falcons
Broncos vs Bills. Winner: Bills
Giants vs Bears. Winner: Bears
Steelers vs Bengals. Winner: Steelers
Dolphins vs Browns. Winner: Browns
Panthers vs Saints. Winner: Saints
Raiders vs Jets. Winner: Raiders
Seahawks vs Eagles. Winner: Seahawks
Lions vs Redskins. Winner: Lions
Jaguars vs Titans. Winner: Titans
Packers vs 49ers. Winner: Packers
Ravens vs Rams. Winner: Ravens
If you are wondering why I picked Arkansas over LSU, it's just I'm trying to put faith into my Hogs and I just can't LSU over Arkansas. Why do I even make this blog if I don't support my Hogs.
It is a bye week for Razorback football and I couldn't be happier. I was able to attend the game last week against Western Kentucky and we might as well had played Alabama. Firing the head coach Chad Morris was the right move after the disaster of losing 45-19 to Western Kentucky at home! But now it feels like 2 years ago again when we fired Bret Bielema after a mediocre 4-8 season. I was thinking this week about what if we kept Bret Bielema. I even watched a lot of the great highlights that happened during his tenure here especially from the 2014-2016 seasons. Of course the season in 2017 looked bad. But it wasn't as bad with Chad Morris. We went 4-8 in 2017 and have gone so far 4-18 the past two seasons with Chad Morris. Maybe Bret Bielema could've gotten the program up again if we gave him time to do it after the 2017 season. We will never know now.
There are probably 3 things that I noticed about Chad Morris that gives me confidence that firing him was the right move. 1. He never moved his family to Fayetteville. Since he never moved, it looks like he wasn't really into it all the way in the first place. We probably never saw Chad Morris give his best effort into the whole deal. 2. He always gave the same excuses and same press conference every single stinking time. After this latest blowout loss to Western Kentucky, a friend on Facebook posted the most perfect post about what I'm talking about. The post was:
That's all I'm saying about #2. And now the 3rd thing is the progress that happened to the program. Here's a spoiler....there was no progress. His first season went 2-10 and we are already on track to go 2-10 again. I know that a lot of people wanted Bret Bielema fired after his 4-8 mediocre 2017 season, but it never got that bad with him. Of course his first season he went 3-9, but that was expected after going 4-8 the season before with John L. Smith as coach. But then the next season we went 7-6. That season we beat Ole Miss and LSU in back-to-back weeks. They were both ranked and we performed a shutout in both games! We went to the Texas Bowl and blew out Texas! Now that was a huge progressing season for the 2nd season with Bret Bielema. But for Chad Morris, nothing changed at all. You know how bad we are now? Guess who beat Western Kentucky for week 1 of this season? It was University of Central Arkansas! UCA beat Western Kentucky 35-28. UCA is a division II college in Arkansas. And we, a division I college, lost to Western Kentucky 45-19. This is really bad.
Now that I think of it, the real hero for our football program is Ty Storey. He transferred from Arkansas to be Western Kentucky's QB. He played well against us and I can tell you he did not play that well when he was with us with Chad Morris as coach. This shows that Chad Morris really doesn't know how to coach up and develop his players and one of his biggest excuses was that they needed more time to do that. But Ty Storey, his QB from last season, got one off-season with Western Kentucky and played better than he ever did here. Thank you Ty Storey for making us realize this! In a way he is still helping the Razorbacks improve the football program.
Now with my opinion about who should be the next coach, I'm just really open for anybody to progress the program. If the interim head coach Barry Lunney Jr. can do it, then I'm behind him. It just has to be somebody who can set the future of this program to be bright. I'll put my faith in Hunter Yuracheck to pick whomever it will be. Of course a dream candidate would be Gus Malzahn because of all the Arkansas connections that he has. And everywhere he goes, big success comes with him. Also he does run a hurry up type of offense that Chad Morris was trying to implement but was not very successful. So that would help the current players adjust well when they learn an offense that is similar to what they've been learning now. As for defense, Gus Malzahn does have a great defense with Auburn now. But with Arkansas, you really need to be sure that the offense is right before defense can be fixed. That is just how it works here. We've won more of our games in the past when we have a great offense. After that is set up, then set up the defense.
Now I would like to start making my own game predictions to see how well I can get it. The usual football analysts can predict 60% of who will win and lose accurately. I want to see if I can do better than that. So here are my predictions for just the Top 25 ranked teams for College Football and all of the NFL games.
College Football Top 25:
Alabama vs. Miss St. Winner: Alabama
Indiana vs. Penn St. Winner: Penn St
Florida vs. Missouri. Winner: Florida
Wisconsin vs Nebraska. Winner: Wisconsin
Michigan St. vs Michigan: Winner: Michigan
Kansas vs Okla St. Winner: Okla St.
Navy vs Notre Dame: Winner: Notre Dame
Ohio State vs. Rutgers: Winner: Ohio State
Wake Forest vs Clemson: Winner: Clemson
Georgia vs Auburn: Winner: Auburn
Memphis vs Houston: Winner: Memphis
Texas vs Iowa State: Winner: Iowa State
West Virginia vs Kansas St. Winner: Kansas St
Minnesota vs Iowa. Winner: Iowa
LSU vs Ole Miss. Winner: LSU
Cincinnati vs USF. Winner: Cincinnati
Oklahoma vs Baylor. Winner: Baylor
Appalachian St vs Georgia St. Winner: Appalachian St.
