Chance of a Sweet Ending

It has finally come to this.  It is Rivalry Week for College Football which means it is is the last week of the regular season.  Which also means it is the last game of the season for Razorback football because....well we are 2-9 and you need at least 6 wins to go to a bowl game.  Our rival that we'll play is the Mizzou Tigers.  They are 5-6.  This means that if we win, they will not be bowl eligible.  This would probably be a sweet note to end this horrible season that we have had.  But Mizzou is on a 5 game losing streak which means they are not feeling so hot right now.  Which could give them a lot of motivation to win their last game of the regular season.  It isn't like it will be hard to beat us.  Right now the FPI has Mizzou beating us by 14 from 82.5% of the 10,000 simulations of this game.  It isn't a big surprise since we score an average of 22.1 points a game and give up 38 points a game.  Mizzou scores 25.5 points a game while they only give up 19.9 points a game.  The match-up overall looks like both teams are not that proficient at offense, but Arkansas is really terrible at defense.  This could be enough help for Mizzou to get a good lead.  But according to the FPI, Arkansas did win 17.5% of the 10,000 simulations so it isn't impossible for Arkansas to win.  Since it is an Arkansas game, I am picking Arkansas to win because I am a fan.  But my professional opinion strongly suggests to pick Mizzou according to these odds.  However, it is not impossible to have at least a sweet ending for the Razorbacks football season. 

On another note, I have been thinking lately about my Super Bowl predictions since it is later in the season and there is a good amount of data to use to make predictions.  So far from seeing some of the numbers, it is most likely that New England will go to the Super Bowl and win it, again.  Since 2001, They have gone to 9 of the last 18 Super Bowls and won 6 of them.  So by history alone, they have the best chance to do it this yet.  Also since 2001, they have on average allowed only 18.66 points and scored 27.89 points.  The years that they weren't in the Super Bowl, they allowed 19.52 points and scored 27.56 points.  When they have been to the Super Bowl, they allowed 17.79 points and scored 28.22 points.  However, when they lose a Super Bowl, they were allowed 19 points a game and scored 32.5 points a game.  But when they win, they allowed 17.18 points a game and score just 26.08 points a game.  This trend shows that the Patriots go and win the Super Bowl when they allow less points and score less points than they usually do.  This season so far, they have only allowed 10.6 points and scored 27.3 points.  The trend that they are going on shows that they can go to the Super Bowl and win this year since they are averaging less points for defense on offense than they usually do.  Another indicator to see if they'll go and win or lose is by Tom Brady's play.  He averages a passer rating of 97.2 so far in his career.  When he gets to the Super Bowl, his rating is 99.77 which is higher than normal.  But for him to win, he averages 95.38 for each season he wins it all.  Whenever he loses, he averages 108.53 for each of those seasons.  Right now his passer rating for the season is 88.5.  With the trend that is going on, the Patriots have a better chance at winning whenever Tom Brady is less involved and doesn't perform as well.  This in correlation goes with their defense being more involved whenever they have won the Super Bowl with their offense also scoring less.  That is just my deep analysis into how New England is most likely going to the Super Bowl and win it this season. 

Of course I am not a Patriots fan.  But I always need to rely on the numbers because they are what measures success and trends.  A recent trend that is hot now is Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.  They only allow 18.1 points and score 35.1 points a game!  The NFL record for most points scored in a season was done by the Denver Broncos in 2013 with an average of 37.9 points a game with 606 points total.  For the Ravens to tie that record, they need to score 44 points in their remaining games.  In their past 3 games, they have been averaging 45 points a game.  If they continue with this trend of 45 points a game, they'll end the season with 611 total points with 38.2 points a game which beats the record.  Lamar Jackson is projected to end the season with 3,530 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns with 1274 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns.  With possibly having a total of 4,804 yards with 44 total touchdowns, he needs to win the MVP.  Because of Lamar Jackson, I want the Ravens to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  But of course like I said earlier, it is likely for the Patriots as well.  But I think that the AFC championship will be against these two and the Ravens will win and go to the Super Bowl.  The NFC will be the Seahawks.  It could be the 49ers but the Seahawks have more experience in the postseason.  My prediction for the Super Bowl will be the Ravens vs. Seahawks which would be a good Super Bowl or a sweet ending to the NFL season.  Just like I hope Episode 9: The Rise of Skywalker will bring a sweet ending to the Skywalker Saga.

Now before anymore college football games or NFL games go on, it is time to make my predictions.  Last week I went 18-4 for college football and 9-4 for the NFL.  That brings my total for college football as 37-7 which is 84% accurate and my total for NFL is 17-9 which is 65.4% accurate.  Looks like I'm doing okay so far.  Let's try this week with these predictions.

College Football:
Mizzou vs. Arkansas. Winner: Arkansas
Iowa vs. Nebraska. Winner: Iowa
Cincy vs. Memphis. Winner: Memphis
Boise St. vs. Colorado St. Winner: Boise St
Appalachian St. vs Troy. Winner: Appalachian St.
Ohio St. vs Michigan. Winner: Ohio St.
Clemson vs. South Carolina. Winner: Clemson
Georgia vs. Georgia Tech. Winner: Georgia
Alabama vs. Auburn. Winner: Alabama
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota. Winner: Minnesota
Baylor vs. Kansas. Winner: Baylor
Rutgers vs. Penn St. Winner: Penn St.
Oregon St. vs. Oregon. Winner: Oregon
Notre Dame vs. Stanford. Winner: Notre Dame.
Texas A&M vs. LSU. Winner: LSU
Iowa St. vs Kansas St. Winner: KSU
Colorado vs. Utah. Winner: Utah
FSU vs. Florida. Winner: Florida
Oklahoma vs OSU. Winner: Oklahoma

NFL:
Raiders vs. Chiefs. Winner: Chiefs
Jets vs. Bengals. Winner: Jets
Titans vs. Colts. Winner: Colts
Eagles vs. Dolphins. Winner: Eagles
Packers vs. Giants. Winner: Packers
Browns vs. Steelers. Winner: Steelers
Redskins vs.  Panthers. Winner: Redskins
Buccaneers vs. Jaguars. Winner: Jaguars
49ers vs. Ravens. Winner: Ravens
Rams vs Cardinals. Winner: Rams
Chargers vs. Broncos. Winner: Chargers
Patriots vs. Texans. Winner: Patriots
Vikings vs. Seahawks. Winner: Seahawks