Thursday, January 23, 2020

The Best Ever?

This week was when the National Championship between Clemson and LSU happened to determine the National Champion of College Football.  There were points of the game where I thought Clemson was going to pull it off, but then LSU would put on all gears to embarrass them to a 42-25 beating.
Over the course of this week, I have been hearing from radio shows and on the TV about how people are ranking this LSU team compared to other greatest teams in college football history.  I even heard someone say that Joe Burrow is the greatest college football quarterback to every play the game.  Since this is MathSportsGuy, I need to really see the numbers in order to really make a good indication on these claims.  Let us go over some numbers.

Team Stats Per Game

LSU this year was able to score 48.4 points per game and their defense allowed 21.9 points per game.  Their offensive points per game was 1st in all of college football rankings and their defensive points was 32nd in all of college football rankings for the 2019 season.  If you are wondering, the record for most points scored per game was set by Army in 1944.  The record that they set was 56 points per game.  The record for least amount of points per game for defense was tied for 0.8 points per game by Duke in 1938 and Villanova in 1937.  Of course, the stats by these teams from the 1930s and 1940s are impressive, but football was way different back then from what it is now.
Let's take a look at the size of the offensive linemen just to see how different the game is now compared to back then.  In the 1930s, the average weight of an offensive lineman was 220 pounds with a height of 6-foot-1.  In the 1940s, the only difference is that the average offensive lineman weighed 221 pounds.  In today's college football, the average offensive lineman is 6-foot-4.3 and weighs 305.4 pounds.  Just by looking at these size differences in just the offensive linemen, we can see that the game has definitely changed just by size of the players.  If any of the football teams from the 1930s and 1940s were to play today's football teams, they would get slaughtered.  This in turn shows that to comparing LSU's 2019 season to average team stats ranked from the greatest stats ever, it won't be a good comparison because a lot of the best stats are ridiculous ones from the 1930s and 1940s.

Strength of Schedule

In today's world of college football, the teams are mainly ranked now by the College Football Playoff Committee.  They take heavily on the rankings on who did each team beat.  LSU in the 2019 season was able to beat ranked teams like (with their rankings at the time) Texas 9, Florida 7, Auburn 9, Alabama 3, Georgia 4, Oklahoma 4, and Clemson 3.  Those teams' current rankings are now Florida 9, Auburn 12, Alabama 13, Georgia 5, Oklahoma 4, and Clemson 3 (Texas is no longer ranked).  LSU was able to beat 7 teams that were ranked in the top 10 when they matched them up during the season.  But in reality, they were able to beat 6 teams that are currently ranked and 3 of them are in the top 5.  When you take into account of when it was this first set of ranked teams that included Texas, LSU beat them all by an average of 15.4 points together.  When LSU played Georgia, Oklahoma, and Clemson, who are ranked in the top 5 now, LSU beat them by an average of 26.3 points.  Whenever the conversation about LSU playing well against good teams, they on average would beat them by a little more than 2 touchdowns each.

What if LSU played a former greatest of the greats?

ESPN recently released a list of the 150 greatest college football teams ever since this season was the 150th season.  Their list put 1971's Nebraska as #1.  That year, Nebraska did beat the ranked number 2, 3, and 4 teams of that season.  You can say that that Nebraska team does have a good argument of being the best team because they had a dominant season against good teams.  You can see the rest of the ranks from this link.  Remember what I said earlier that size can be the difference here.  In the 1970s, the average weight and height of an offensive lineman was 255 pounds and 6-foot-3.  I said earlier as well that the average size of an offensive lineman now weighs 305.4 pounds and is 6-foot-4.3.  LSU's offensive line for this season was 6-foot-4.4 and 323.4 pounds.  When it comes to a size difference this big, I would definitely take LSU over Nebraska here.  I emphasize the offensive linemen because they are the most important part of the offense.  They help block for the running backs and give the quarterback the time he needs to make a play.  To win a game, you need to score points.  Without a good offensive line, it will be very hard to score any points on offense.  Of course special teams and defense could make some points here and there.  But, most of the points are scored by the offense.
Just watch the plays that even the offenses made for the Super Bowl contenders Chiefs and 49ers did last Sunday.  Their offenses were able to score because of the blocking orchestrated by the offensive line.  Look at these run plays by the 49ers against the Packers.




Watch this TD for the Chiefs from last Sunday.  Watch how the offensive line works to block for the quarterback.  One of the linemen pancakes a guy!



Whenever you watch any more football games, just watch how well the offensive line battles to get the offense working.  Therefore, the size of LSU's offensive line will determine how badly they will beat Nebraska's 1971 team.  Because of LSU's resume of beating a ton of highly ranked teams and beating some of them by a lot, it is a good argument that this team could be the greatest college football team ever.  They went 15-0 which makes it more solidified because the College Football Playoff kind of confirms how well these National Champions are because they have more chances to beat the best teams.

What about Joe Burrow?
Joe Burrow probably had the best season that I've ever seen by a quarterback.  I mean he put up some big stats.  He made a new record of 60 passing touchdowns for the season and a new record of total touchdowns which he made 65 of.  He also threw 5,671 yards which is 3rd all-time.  He also had a 15-0 record and won the National Championship.  I heard on ESPN radio from Jim Rome and on Sportscenter from Kirk Herbstreit that he is probably the best college football quarterback that they've ever seen.  I mean, he probably had the best season ever, but the best college football quarterback ever?  Let's look at some stats from former quarterbacks.
The winningest quarterback for college is Kellen Moore who had an impressive 50-3 record.  Did he do well in the NFL? Nope.  He became an assistant on the Cowboys staff.  The quarterback with the most touchdowns responsible for is Case Keenum with 178.  What is he doing now? Starting a very mediocre Redskins team that finished 3-13 in 2019.  There are 3 QBs that I remember that have won the National Championship multiple times.  Tommie Frazier for Nebraska, A.J. McCarron for Alabama, and Tim Tebow.  How is Tommie Frazier? He never played in the NFL.  What about A.J. McCarron?  He's Deshaun Watson's backup on the Houston Texans.  How about Tim Tebow?  He just got married and is a commentator on SEC Nation but only had one year of excitement in the NFL.  What I'm saying is that Joe Burrow had probably the best season ever.  But, I think it will solidify him even more depending on how well he does in the NFL.  If he does well, he can be considered one of the greatest ever.  Just imagine if he was playing with LSU his whole career as the starter?  It would have boosted his career stats better instead of most of them being from this last season.  He was a graduate transfer to LSU.  
Feleipe Franks from Florida is a graduate transfer to Arkansas.  He was the starter for the Florida Gators.  Cross my fingers that he repeats Joe Burrow's season with Arkansas.  Woo pig!



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